利用盾构法施工超大直径隧道时盾构始发与到达环节是事故高发期，由此引发的工程事故屡见不鲜。为了最大程度降低盾构始发施工过程中的风险，提出盾构始发施工风险实时监控技术。该技术结合原位监测、工况实时记录、专家系统对盾构始发各关键工序进行实时监控，根据原位监测数据分析、盾构始发各工序衔接、工期等，综合评估各工序可能存在的潜在风险，可实时远程自动预警，并通过专家系统案例分析提出相应的风险解决方案。该技术在上海长江西路隧道工程中进行应用，取得比较理想的结果。

Accidents often occur during the launching and arriving of superlarge diameter shield machines. The realtime risk monitoring technology adopted in shield launching is presented, so as to reduce the tunneling risks. The technology is as follows: The key procedures of shield launching are monitored in real time on basis of insitu monitoring, realtime work recording and expert system. The potential risks are evaluated on basis of the insitu monitoring data, the launching procedures and the construction schedule. Automatic warning is given in real time and countermeasures are proposed by the expert system. The technology has been applied in the construction of Changjiang West Road Tunnel in Shanghai and good results have been achieved.