准确预测隧道涌水量能有效减少隧道病害，保护生态环境，科学指导隧道的设计与施工，而如何正确选择和应用预测方法，是准确预测的前提条件。通过广泛调研，在总结分析各类涌水量预测方法的原理和适用范围基础上，以六盘山隧道某断面为例，深入探讨了围岩渗透系数、洞室尺寸、地下水位净高变化、注浆圈厚度、注浆水平和衬砌抗渗等级等因素对隧道涌水量的影响，重点指出各类解析方法的局限性和适用条件，突出了注浆水平在实际工程中的作用，并建议山岭公路隧道衬砌抗渗等级不宜小于S8。

The accurate prediction of the tunnel water inflow is helpful in minimizing the tunnel disease, protecting the environment and guiding the design and construction of the tunnel. However, the selection of proper water inflow prediction method, as well as its proper application, is a prerequisite for the accurate prediction of the water inflow. In the paper, the principles and application scopes of various water inflow prediction methods are summarized and analyzed, and the influence of the surrounding rock permeability coefficient, tunnel dimension, groundwater level, grouting ring thickness, grouting effect and lining impermeability grade on the water inflow is analyzed, with Liupanshan tunnel as an example. Furthermore, the limitations and application scopes of the analytical methods are provided, the application of the grouting effect in the water inflow prediction is highlighted, and it is proposed that the impermeability grade of the lining of mountaincrossing highway tunnels should not be inferior to S8.