为了准确预测全断面岩石掘进机长距离掘进硬岩地层的滚刀更换与使用量，量化滚刀检修、更换的时间与费用，从滚刀磨损宏观能量转换入手，基于能量磨损理论，通过分析摩擦功与磨损体积之间的关系，建立滚刀宏观能量理论的磨损量预测模型；从滚刀磨损的微观磨损机制入手，基于磨粒磨损机制，通过分析微观磨粒犁沟与滚刀宏观磨损量的关系，建立滚刀微观磨损机制的磨损量预测模型。通过某引水隧洞工程的现场磨损数据与掘进参数对2种预测方法的可行性进行验证，结果表明: 2种预测模型对滚刀磨损量的预估具有一定的参考；提高预测结果的准确性需通过实验方法建立关键参数的选取准则。

The relationship between the frictional work and wearing volume of disc cutters is analyzed on the basis of the macro energy conversion of disc cutter wearing, and the disc cutter wearing prediction model based on the macro energy theory is established. Furthermore, the relationship between the micro wearing particle furrow of the disc cutter and the macro wearing loss is analyzed on the basis of the micro wearing mechanism of disc cutters, and the disc cutter wearing prediction model based on micro wear mechanism is established. The two prediction models are verified through field test data acquired in the construction of a water conveyance tunnel. Conclusions drawn are as follows: 1) These two prediction models can provide reference for the prediction of the disc cutter wearing; 2) It is necessary to establish the selection criteria for the key parameters by means of experiments, so as to improve the prediction accuracy.