分析和探究软土地层中盾构掘进施工对地面沉降的影响因素以及对沉降进行准确预测，能够为土压（泥水）平衡盾构在不同软土地层中的掘进参数优化和沉降控制提供理论依据。以盾构慢速掘进（停机）工程实例为研究对象，采用理论解析解和三维数值模拟2种方法，计算单纯由盾构施工引起的理论地面沉降量，并与南京宁和城际一期工程新梗街站—天保路站（2号盾构井）区间施工过程中盾构停机时的实际监测数据进行比对总结，从量值差异探究盾构施工引起地面沉降的主要影响因素。分析结果表明，盾构施工工艺参数、超孔隙水压力消散和地层损失是影响盾构施工中地面沉降的主控因素。通过优化施工参数，并采取经济可靠的超前地基处理措施，能较大程度地减小盾构掘进对地面沉降的影响。

The analysis of influencing factors of ground surface settlement induced by shield tunneling in soft ground and the accurate prediction of settlement can provide theory basis for shield tunneling parameter optimization and settlement control. The theoretical analysis method and threedimensional numerical simulation method are adopted for studying shield boring with a low speed (or shield stop). The ground settlement induced by shield tunneling is calculated by the abovementioned two methods, and is compared with the measured settlement data of shield stop section of Xingengjie StationTianbaolu Station section of Ninghe Intercity Railway in Nanjing. The influencing factors of ground settlement induced by shield tunneling are analyzed in terms of settlement value differences. The analytical results show that the shield tunneling parameters, excess pore water pressure dissipation and ground loss are the main influencing factors of ground surface settlement. The ground settlement induced by shield tunneling can be minimized by means of construction parameters optimization and economical and reliable advanced foundation treatment.