- CSCD核心中文核心科技核心
- RCCSE(A+)公路运输高质量期刊T1
- Ei CompendexScopusWJCI
- EBSCOPж(AJ)JST
收稿日期: 2018-04-05
修回日期: 2018-08-11
网络出版日期: 2018-09-30
基金资助
国家自然科学基金项目（71471094）； 山东省自然科学基金项目（ZR2011GL021）； 青岛市社会科学规划项目（QDSKL100403）
Study of Risk Evaluation of Urban Underground Utility Tunnel PPP Project Based on GRASPA
Received date: 2018-04-05
Revised date: 2018-08-11
Online published: 2018-09-30
为及时发现并合理应对综合管廊PPP项目存在的风险，给政府部门提供投资决策的依据，提出基于集对分析理论的风险评价方法。首先，借助德尔菲法确定初始风险清单，采用主成分分析（PCA）对25个要素指标降维处理，并结合以往研究文献及项目特点构建管廊PPP项目风险评价指标体系； 其次，引入C-OWA算子实现指标赋权，削弱数据极端值造成的不利影响，并建立基于集对分析的风险评价模型，利用灰色关联度确定差异度系数i值，通过联系度的取值评判项目风险等级及发展趋势； 最后，将模型应用到青岛高新区管廊PPP项目实际工程，结果表明该项目风险等级为“中等”，有向较低风险等级发展的趋势，同时验证模型具有可行性与合理性，为综合管廊PPP项目风险评价的理论与实践提供参考。
关键词： 城市地下综合管廊; PPP项目; 风险评价; 集对分析理论（SPA）; 灰色关联分析（GRA）
王建波 , 有维宝 , 刘芳梦 , 张薇 , 杨迪瀛 . 基于GRA-SPA的城市地下综合管廊PPP项目风险评价研究[J]. 隧道建设, 2018 , 38(9) : 1446 -1455 . DOI: 10.3973/j.issn.2096-4498.2018.09.006
A risk evaluation method for urban underground utility tunnel publicprivatepartnership (PPP) project based on set pair analysis (SPA) theory is proposed to provide guidance for government investment. Firstly, the risk list is determined under the help of Delphi method; the principal components analysis (PCA) method is used to reduce the dimension of the 25 factor indices; and a risk evaluation index system for underground utility tunnel PPP project is established based on previous research literatures and project characteristics. And then the COWA operator is introduced to calculate the indicator weight and weaken the adverse impact of data extremes; the risk evaluation model is established based on the SPA theory; the grey relational analysis (GRA) method is used to determine the value of difference coefficient i; and the risk level and development trend of the project are judged by the value of correlation. Finally, the model is applied to the practical project of Qingdao Gaoxin District utility tunnel project; and the applicable results show that the project risk level is "medium", and it has a tendency towards lower risk level. Meanwhile, the case analysis verifies that the model is feasible and reasonable. The results can provide reference for the theoretical and practical risk evaluation of utility tunnel PPP project.
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