机电系统可靠性是隧道安全运营的重要保障。如何从成本和性能控制角度，选择合理的维修策略成为运维实践中一个重要问题。为解决目前研究中设备维修策略存在的程式化问题，在保障设备完好率满足规范的前提下，综合考虑设备运维长期的维修成本和社会成本，基于设备可靠度变化趋势预测，提出了维修策略动态选择模型（MSDSM）。利用该模型，结合大连路隧道机电设备的历史数据，以排水泵为例分析不同情形下维修策略选择的规律，结果表明： 1）在设备全生命周期采取预防维修策略，有助于节约设备的养护成本； 2）结合预防维修的效果，一般在设备寿命前期采取预防维修策略，在设备寿命后期采取预防更换策略。

Reliability of the electromechanical system used in a tunnel is crucial for the safety operation of the tunnel. The reasonable selection of the maintenance strategy from the perspective of cost and performance control is an important issue for operation and maintenance practice. To solve the programmed problems existing in the current research on equipment maintenance strategy, a maintenance strategy dynamic selection model (MSDSM) is proposed. The model is based on the prediction of the equipment reliability trend under the premise that the equipment integrity rate meets the standard and by considering the longterm maintenance cost and social cost of equipment operation and maintenance. The laws of the maintenance strategy selection under different situations are analyzed using the MSDSM by considering the example of a drainage pump based on the historical data of the electromechanical equipment in Dalian road tunnel. The results show the following: (1) Adopting the preventive maintenance strategy during the whole life cycle of the equipment is helpful for reducing the maintenance cost of the equipment.(2) According to the effect of preventive maintenance, the preventive maintenance strategy should be adopted in the early life of the equipment, and preventive replacement strategy should be adopted in the later life of the equipment.