考虑合理缓冲的PPP轨道交通项目弹性特许期研究

易欣; 邱凯洁; 张跃斌; 沈良峰

doi:10.3973/j.issn.2096-4498.2021.12.006

隧道建设 >

2021 , Vol. 41 >Issue 12: 2066 - 2072

DOI: https://doi.org/10.3973/j.issn.2096-4498.2021.12.006

研究与探索

考虑合理缓冲的PPP轨道交通项目弹性特许期研究

易欣 ,
邱凯洁 ,
张跃斌 ,
沈良峰

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(中南林业科技大学土木工程学院，湖南长沙 410004)

易欣(1978—)，男，江西宜春人，2015年毕业于中南大学,土木工程规划与管理专业，博士，副教授，现从事PPP项目管理、可持续建设管理等方面的研究工作。E-mail： ioriyixin@163.com。

网络出版日期: 2022-01-05

基金资助

湖南省自然科学基金项目（2018JJ2682）；湖南省教育厅科学研究项目（17C1685）；湖南省哲学社会科学基金项目（19YBA376）

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Research on Flexible Concession Period of a Public Private-Partnership Rail Transit Project Considering Reasonable Buffer

YI Xin ,
QIU Kaijie ,
ZHANG Yuebin ,
SHEN Liangfeng

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(School of Civil Engineering, Central South University of Forestry and Technology, Changsha 410004, Hunan, China)

Online published: 2022-01-05

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摘要

合理的特许期设计是PPP轨道交通项目成功的重要前提，针对固定特许期难以有效应对不确定性因素影响和激励社会资本的问题，依据关键链理论提出考虑合理缓冲的PPP轨道交通项目弹性特许期模型。首先，通过耦合净现值法和示范项目数据明确项目基本运营期；然后，识别出影响特许期的24个不确定性因素，并采用探索性因子分析法得到6个公因子及其对特许期影响的权重；再根据各因素对特许期的影响程度随运营阶段发生动态变化的特点，借鉴变权思想采用剪切粘贴法构建PPP轨道交通项目弹性特许期的初始缓冲区模型；最后，根据运营绩效提出缓冲区动态调整系数，通过奖惩机制进行缓冲区动态管理。通过实例验证，结果表明：与固定特许期相比，考虑合理缓冲的弹性特许期更符合PPP轨道交通项目的实践需要，并能够更有效地激励社会资本持续改善运营绩效。

关键词： PPP轨道交通项目; 弹性特许期; 关键链理论; 合理缓冲; 动态管理

本文引用格式

易欣 , 邱凯洁 , 张跃斌 , 沈良峰 . 考虑合理缓冲的PPP轨道交通项目弹性特许期研究[J]. 隧道建设, 2021 , 41(12) : 2066 -2072 . DOI: 10.3973/j.issn.2096-4498.2021.12.006

Abstract

A reasonable concession period design is an important prerequisite for the success of public privatepartnership(PPP) rail transit projects. To address the problem that a fixed concession period is difficult to handle the uncertainty while effectively motivating social capital, a flexible concession period model for PPP rail transit projects considering a reasonable buffer is proposed based on critical chain project management. First, the basic operating period of the project is clarified by coupling the net present value method and demonstration project data. Second, 24 uncertain factors affecting the concession period are identified, and an exploratory factor analysis is used to obtain six common factors and their influence on the concession period weights. Third, according to the dynamic characteristics of the influence of various factors on the concession period varies with the operating stage, the initial buffer model of the flexible concession period of PPP rail transit projects is constructed using the shear and paste method and variable weight ideology. Finally, the dynamic adjustment coefficient of buffer zone is proposed according to the operational performance, and the buffer zone is dynamically managed through the reward and punishment mechanism. The results, verified by examples, show that the flexible concession period considering reasonable buffer is more aligned with the practical needs of PPP rail transit projects than the fixed concession period and can more effectively motivate social capital to continuously improve operational performance.

Key words： public private-partnership rail transit project; flexible concession period; critical chain project management; reasonable buffer; dynamic management

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