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基于Bi-LSTM-ARIMA的超大直径泥水平衡盾构油脂消耗量预测模型
(1. 中铁十四局集团有限公司, 山东 济南 250101;2. 西南交通大学 交通隧道工程教育部重点实验室, 四川 成都 610031)
网络出版日期: 2023-04-17
Prediction Model for Grease Consumption of Super-Large Diameter Slurry Shield Based on Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model
(1.China Railway 14th Bureau Group Co., Ltd., Jinan 250101, Shandong, China; 2. Key Laboratory of Transportation Tunnel Engineering, Ministry of Education, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu 610031, Sichuan, China)
Online published: 2023-04-17
关键词: 超大直径泥水平衡盾构; 油脂消耗; 时间序列; 神经网络; 预测模型
刘四进 , 王宇博 , 方勇 , 熊英健 , 马浴阳 . 基于Bi-LSTM-ARIMA的超大直径泥水平衡盾构油脂消耗量预测模型[J]. 隧道建设, 2023 , 43(3) : 408 -416 . DOI: 10.3973/j.issn.2096-4498.2023.03.005
Grease is a major consumable material in the shield tunneling process, and the accurate prediction of grease consumption is significant in controlling the project cost. In this study, a time series prediction model of shield tail sealing grease consumption based on bidirectional long shortterm memory and autoregressive integrated moving average model(BiLSTMARIMA) is constructed to manage and predict the shield tail sealing grease consumption accurately. Moreover, a backpropagation(BP) neural network prediction model of shield tail sealing grease consumption is established, considering shield tunneling parameters and related engineering, geological, and hydrogeological parameters. The prediction model was applied to the Yellow river tunnel in Jinan, China, and the shield tail sealing grease consumption in the eastern section of the tunnel was trained and predicted. The results show that the root mean square error of the applied BiLSTMARIMA model is 13.47 and the mean absolute percentage error is only 3.13 %, indicating better practicability and reliability than the ARIMA time series and the BP neural network models.
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