为进一步研究岩溶区隧道突泥涌水灾害分析评价的不确定性和模糊性问题，基于区间数理论、模糊综合评价法以及层次分析法建立岩溶隧道突水突泥灾害危险评估新模型，并从地层岩性条件、地质构造条件、不良地质条件、地形地貌条件、隧道与地下水的位置关系和地下水循环运移条件等影响突水突泥灾害的关键因素出发，建立含有6个一级指标、13个二级指标的评价体系，以期统一刻画区间形式的岩溶隧道突水突泥评价指标的确定性和不确定性，为岩溶区隧道突水突泥区间段落灾害预防与整体评价提供更加实用的解决途径。典型案例对比和实例应用结果表明，该模型评估的岩溶区隧道突水突泥危险等级与案例揭示情况较为吻合，其方法的合理性与实用性得到了验证，计算所得的危险等级较为合理。

To further explore the uncertainty and fuzziness in the analysis and evaluation of water and mud inrush disaster in karst tunnel, a novel hazard assessment model for water and mud inrush disaster in karst tunnel is established based on interval number theory, fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, and analytic hierarchy process. The primary factors affecting water and mud inrush, including formation lithology, geological structure, geological conditions, topographic and geomorphic, positional relationship between tunnel and groundwater, and the circulation and migration conditions of groundwater, are analyzed, and an evaluation system containing six primary indices and 13 secondary indices is constructed to unify the certainty and uncertainty of the evaluation index of water and mud inrush in karst tunnel in the form of interval. This provides a more practical solution for disaster prevention and overall evaluation of tunnel water and mud inrush interval in karst area. The typical cases and application results show that the risk level of water and muck inrush in karst tunnel assessed by the model is consistent with that revealed by the case, validating the rationality and practicability of the proposed method and the calculated risk level.