为解决承插式管片在拼装过程中出现的误差累积问题，提出一种基于管片装配尺寸链的仿真方法，通过建立MATLAB仿真模型并采用蒙特卡罗法对管片拼装过程进行模拟分析。研究结果表明： 1）管片纵缝接触面张角是管片成环拼装可靠度的主要影响因素，实际管片拼装中应严格控制纵缝接触面张角的偏差； 2）多环管片拼装分析中，在相同管片拼装公差控制条件下，错缝拼装方式对应的管片环内拼装可靠度较通缝拼装方式高； 3）对南京江心洲隧道工程采用的承插式管片拼装公差进行优化设计，拼装可靠度得到有效提升，管片拼装质量更高。

A simulation method based on the dimension chain of a segment assembly is proposed to address the error accumulation problem in the assembly process of segment with socket joint. Furthermore, MATLAB simulation model is established and the Monte Carlo method is used to simulate and analyze the assembling process of segments. Results are as follows: (1) The angle of the joint surface at the longitudinal joint is the primary factor affecting the reliability of the ring assembly of the segment, which should be strictly controlled. (2) In a multiring assembly analysis, reliability of the assembly in the ring corresponding to the staggered assembly method is higher than that of the through joint assembly method under the same assembly tolerance control conditions. (3) The assembly tolerance of the segment with the socket joint applied in the Jiangxinzhou tunnel in Nanjing, China, is optimized, effectively enhancing the assembly reliability and quality.