为实现对铁路隧道物化阶段碳排放的准确核算与有效管理，首先，在碳排放核算时以过程分析法为基础，对于碳排放系数不明确的材料采用投入产出法进行补充，进而形成隧道物化阶段碳排放核算混合方法；
然后，将隧道划分为具有不同功能的单位模块，并据此建立基于模块化理论的铁路隧道物化阶段碳排放核算模型； 接着，结合数据质量指标（data quality index, DQI）与蒙特卡洛模拟（Monte Carlo
method, MCS）对碳排放核算时的清单数据进行不确定性分析；最后，采用K-means算法将施工工序分为5类管理项，并进一步结合碳排放量与不确定度提出具有针对性的碳排放管理路径。结果表明： 1）隧道每延米的碳排放总量为11.625 t，清单数据变异系数为6.13%，验证了核算结果的可靠性； 2）在所有工序中，二次衬砌、初期支护及超前支护的碳排放贡献占总量的78.54%，属于“人材机”3因素管理项，应作为碳排放管理的关键工序。通过对各类材料的碳排放量和不确定度进行深入分析后发现： 除水泥与钢材外，砂石、减水剂、矿渣粉等也应作为关键材料进行重点管理。
The accurate accounting and
effective management of carbon emissions in the embodied stage of railway
tunnels are essential. Therefore, in this study, the process analysis method is
used as the foundation for carbon emission accounting, and the input-output method supplements materials with unclear carbon emission
coefficients. This results in the application of a hybrid approach to carbon
emission accounting in the embodied stage of tunnels. The tunnels are divided
into unit modules based on their functional differences, and a carbon emission
accounting model for the embodied stage of railway tunnels is developed using
the modularization theory. Furthermore, the data quality index is integrated
with the Monte Carlo method to analyze the uncertainty in the inventory data
for carbon emission accounting. Finally, the K-means
algorithm is applied to classify the construction process into five management
item categories, thereby establishing a targeted carbon emission accounting
model based on carbon emissions and uncertainty. The results reveal the
following: (1) The total carbon emission per linear meter of the tunnel is
11.625 t, with a variation coefficient of 6.13%. This confirms the reliability of the accounting results. (2) The
carbon emission from secondary lining, primary support, and advance support
accounts for 78.54% of the total emissions. Thus, the emissions fall under the
"people-materials-machines"
management category and should be prioritized in carbon emission management.
(3) Furthermore, a detailed analysis of the carbon emissions and material
uncertainty indicates that key materials in emission management should also be
considered in addition to cement and steel, sand and stone, water-reducing agents, and slag powder.
