关键词: 城市地下综合管廊, PPP项目, 风险评价, 集对分析理论（SPA）, 灰色关联分析（GRA）

Abstract:

A risk evaluation method for urban underground utility tunnel publicprivatepartnership (PPP) project based on set pair analysis (SPA) theory is proposed to provide guidance for government investment. Firstly, the risk list is determined under the help of Delphi method; the principal components analysis (PCA) method is used to reduce the dimension of the 25 factor indices; and a risk evaluation index system for underground utility tunnel PPP project is established based on previous research literatures and project characteristics. And then the COWA operator is introduced to calculate the indicator weight and weaken the adverse impact of data extremes; the risk evaluation model is established based on the SPA theory; the grey relational analysis (GRA) method is used to determine the value of difference coefficient i; and the risk level and development trend of the project are judged by the value of correlation. Finally, the model is applied to the practical project of Qingdao Gaoxin District utility tunnel project; and the applicable results show that the project risk level is "medium", and it has a tendency towards lower risk level. Meanwhile, the case analysis verifies that the model is feasible and reasonable. The results can provide reference for the theoretical and practical risk evaluation of utility tunnel PPP project.

Key words: urban underground utility tunnel, publicprivatepartnership (PPP) project, risk evaluation, set pair analysis (SPA) theory, grey relational analysis (GRA)