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隧道建设(中英文)

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融合机器学习的盾构渣土改良效果预测与参数智能设计方法

付海南1,周雄1,2,*,杨江波1,刘晓洋1,蔡昊3   

  1. (1. 中国地质大学(北京)工程技术学院,北京100083;2. 河北省城市地下工程灾害防治与更新重点实验室,河北 雄安 133100;3. 中铁十四局集团有限公司,山东 济南 250000)
  • 出版日期:2026-04-07 发布日期:2026-04-07
  • 作者简介:付海南(1996-),男,安徽淮南人,2022年毕业于中国地质大学(北京),地质工程专业,硕士,工程师,现从事地下与隧道工程方向研究工作。E-mail:fhncugb@163.com。*通信作者:周雄,E-mail:zhouxiong@cugb.edu.cn。

Integration of Machine Learning for Prediction and Intelligent Parameter Design in Shield Tunneling Muck Conditioning

FU Hainan1, ZHOU Xiong1,2,*, YANG Jiangbo1, LIU Xiaoyang1, CAI Hao3   

  1. (1. School of Engineering and Technology, China University of Geosciences (Beijing), Beijing 100083; 2. Hebei Key Laboratory of Disaster Prevention and Renewal for Urban Underground Engineering,China University of Geosciences (Beijing), Xiong’an 133100,Hebei, China; 3. China Railway 14th Bureau Group Corporation, Limited, Jinan 250000, Shandong, China)

  • Online:2026-04-07 Published:2026-04-07

摘要:

为实现渣土改良效果的精准预测与参数智能设计,本研究融合机器学习与逆向推理,提出一种混合建模方法。以沈阳地铁三号线工程砂土为对象,通过室内试验构建包含120组数据的数据集,涵盖有效粒径、泡沫注入比、泥浆浓度及泥浆注入比等关键参数。系统比较了六种机器学习算法在预测渣土坍落度与渗透系数方面的性能,并基于SHAP方法进行特征重要性解析。针对参数逆向设计中存在的过拟合与解不唯一等问题,提出一种SVR-BPNN混合建模策略,通过BP神经网络生成参数组合,并利用支持向量回归模型进行校验与迭代优化。研究结果表明:1)在坍落度与渗透系数的预测任务中,支持向量回归模型表现最优,预测精度高且稳健性强;2)SHAP解释性分析显示,有效粒径是影响改良效果的最关键因素,不同输出变量对输入特征的敏感性存在显著差异;3)所提出的SVR-BPNN混合模型有效缓解了逆向设计中的过拟合问题,提升了参数组合的可行性与可靠性;4)该模型在沈阳地铁三号线工程中成功应用,以目标坍落度200mm和渗透系数2.0×10-5cm/s为输入,反演得到满足误差要求的改良剂参数,现场实测结果与目标值吻合良好,盾构掘进过程顺畅,验证了模型在实际工程中的有效性与实用价值。

关键词:

Abstract:

To achieve intelligent design and precise prediction of soil conditioning, this study proposes a hybrid modeling approach integrating machine learning and inverse reasoning. Using sandy soil from the Shenyang Metro Line 3 project as the subject, a dataset containing 120 groups of data was established through laboratory tests, covering key parameters such as effective particle size, foam injection ratio, slurry concentration, and slurry injection ratio. The performance of six machine learning algorithms in predicting soil slump and permeability coefficient was systematically compared. The results show that the Support Vector Regression (SVR) model performed best in both tasks, demonstrating high prediction accuracy and strong robustness. Interpretability analysis based on the SHAP method indicates that effective particle size is the most critical factor influencing conditioning effectiveness, and different output variables exhibit significant differences in sensitivity to input features. To address issues in inverse parameter design such as overfitting and non-unique solutions, this study innovatively proposes an SVR-BPNN hybrid modeling strategy. It employs a BP model to generate parameter combinations and verifies them through the SVR model with iterative optimization, significantly improving the feasibility and reliability of parameter design. The model was successfully applied in the Shenyang Metro Line 3 project. With target slump of 200 mm and permeability coefficient of 2.0×10-5cm/s as inputs, the model inversely derived conditioner parameter combinations that met error requirements. Field measurements aligned well with target values, and shield tunneling proceeded smoothly, validating the model’s effectiveness and practical value in real-world engineering.

Key words: shield muck conditioning, machine learning, parameter prediction, inverse design, SVR-BPNN hybrid model