A rock burst prediction theory based on insitu stress is presented in this paper. A tunnel located in southwest of Fujian, China is studied to prove the reliability of the theory. Firstly,the rock strength estimation theory based on Heok-Brown strength criterion and the rock stress prediction theory according to modified Sheorey model are presented and illustrated. The strength of the rock mass of the mentioned tunnel is analyzed on basis of the geotechnical investigation data and insitu stress, and the stress magnitude along the whole tunnel is predicted. After the stress data are obtained, the stress state is evaluated. The results show that most of the tunnel is located in the high stress area. At the same time, the widelyused strengthtostress method is used to predict the possible rock burst during excavation.The comparison between with the prediction results and the actual rock bursts shows that the prediction results coincide well with the actual conditions.