The ground loss in shield tunneling always induces surface settlement. The current theoretical analysis methods assume that the shield machine is driving along a horizontal line, while the influence of shield construction angle on the surface deformation is not considered. As a result, based on the corrected formula of image method, the shield elevation angle and tunnel axis inclination angle are introduced, and the surface deformation calculation formula considering the tunnel axis inclination is established by discrete method. The effectiveness of the proposed method is verified by numerical simulation of the actual engineering parameters and engineering monitoring data. On this basis, the influence of tunnel axis inclination on surface deformation is further analyzed. The analytical results show that the inclination angle of tunnel axis has obvious influence on the surface deformation, which is reflected in two aspects as follows: (1) on the vertical section, the inclination angle directly affects the slope of the surface deformation curve; and (2) on the crosssection, with the increase of the inclination angle, the maximum surface settlement increases, the settlement trough becomes narrower, and the deformation curve becomes sharper. The evaluation method of construction surface deformation considering the inclination angle of shield tunnel axis can reflect the influence of angle factor on surface deformation in actual construction.