Currently, construction risk prevention and regulation
are difficult in expansive newtype underground spaces. As a
result, the term of large urban underground space (ULUS) is defined, and the
characteristics of the ULUS construction risk are examined. Then, the idea of
investigating the construction risk of the ULUS from a systematic perspective
is advanced, splitting the risk system into three parts: structural,
environmental, and organization and management. Based on the Analysis of each
subsystem′s characteristics and the relationship
between the subsystems, a multifactor coupling and
evolution model of major risks in the ULUS construction is established by
combining the Bayesian network, fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, Markov
chain, and system dynamics. Furthermore, the concept of the coupling
coefficient of risk factors is proposed in the model of a Bayesian network
framework, which can quantitatively express the coupling effect of risk factors
while streamlining the creation of the Bayesian network. Furthermore, the Markov chain and system
dynamics forecast the growth behavior of the environment and the organization
and management subsystems to predict the risk evolution trend during the
construction process. Finally, the model also evaluates the risk associated
with the building of the Dongdaqiao station on Beijing metro line 17. The
findings demonstrate that the construction risk of the ULUS has clear stage
characteristics, and the risk reaches the greatest in the excavation stage; the
coupling effect of the risk factors has a significant impact on the likelihood
of risk events, ignoring the coupling effects of risk factors will cause higher
deviations in the risk analysis results.
LEI Shengxiang
,
LEI Ke
,
WANG Xiuying
,
TAN Zhongsheng
,
HUANG Mingli
,
TIAN Yuanyuan
. MultiFactor Coupling and Evolution Model
of Major Risks in Urban Large Underground Space Construction[J]. Tunnel Construction, 2022
, 42(8)
: 1331
-1341
.
DOI: 10.3973/j.issn.2096-4498.2022.08.002
