满载率差异对水下盾构隧道疏散时间的影响

doi:10.3973/j.issn.2096-4498.2026.06.008

隧道建设（中英文） ›› 2026, Vol. 46 ›› Issue (6): 1220-1230.DOI: 10.3973/j.issn.2096-4498.2026.06.008

满载率差异对水下盾构隧道疏散时间的影响

刘顶立¹，武璐¹，刘俊祺¹，卜蓉伟¹，范传刚^2，*

（1. 长沙理工大学交通学院，湖南长沙 410114；2.中南大学土木工程学院，湖南长沙 410075）

出版日期:2026-06-20 发布日期:2026-06-20
作者简介:刘顶立（1990—），男，湖南长沙人，2021年毕业于中南大学，消防工程专业，博士，副教授，主要从事火灾风险防控及消防救援方面的研究工作。E-mail: liudingli@csust.edu.cn。 *通信作者：范传刚， E-mail: chuangang.fan@csu.edu.cn。

Impact of Passenger Load Factor Variation on Evacuation Time in Underwater Shield Tunnels

LIU Dingli¹, WU Lu¹, LIU Junqi¹, BU Rongwei¹, FAN Chuangang^{2, *}

(1. School of Transportation, Changsha University of Science and Technology, Changsha 410114， Hunan, China; 2. School of Civil Engineering, Central South University, Changsha 410075, Hunan, China)

Online:2026-06-20 Published:2026-06-20

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 现有隧道疏散仿真模拟研究均假定车辆满载，忽视了实际载客情况对疏散时间的影响。为衡量道路车辆的载客情况，提出并定义“满载率”概念，即统计时段内，被统计区域所有车辆的实际载客量之和与其额定载客量之和的比值；并统计3 260辆车，得到实际满载率为27.66%。以典型水下盾构隧道为例，运用Pathfinder仿真模拟48种疏散场景，选取该实际满载率（27.66%）并设置各梯度满载率（100%、80%、60%、40%、20%），结合不同车道数和车间距工况，分析满载率差异对疏散时间的影响。结果表明： 1）满载率差异对水下盾构隧道疏散时间影响显著，假定满载的模拟疏散时间结果显著偏高，当满载率从实际的27.66% 提高到100% 时，疏散时间最大增加217.03%； 2）疏散时间与满载率呈高度线性正相关（R²＞0.95），且得到不同车道数、车间距下满载率与疏散时间的线性回归模型； 3）车间距、车道数均影响满载率对疏散时间的作用程度，会加快疏散时间随满载率的增长速度，且二者存在交互作用，车道数越多、车间距越小，满载率对疏散时间的延长作用越强。建议在开展隧道疏散仿真研究时考虑满载率差异的影响，可参考实际满载率取值（27.66%），以提升仿真模拟结果的准确性和可靠性。

关键词: 水下盾构隧道, 满载率, 实地调查, 疏散仿真模拟, 疏散时间

Abstract: Existing tunnel evacuation simulation studies generally assume fully loaded vehicles, ignoring the impact of actual passenger loading on evacuation time. To measure the passenger loading characteristics of road vehicles, this study proposes and defines the concept of “passenger load factor”, which refers to the ratio of the total actual passenger volume of all vehicles in the study area to the total rated passenger capacity within the statistical period. Statistics of 3 260 vehicles show that the actual passenger load factor is 27.66%. Taking a typical underwater shield tunnel as an example, 48 evacuation scenarios are simulated using Pathfinder. The actual passenger load factor (27.66%) and five graded passenger load factor levels (100%, 80%, 60%, 40%, and 20%) are set, combined with different numbers of lanes and vehicle spacing conditions, to analyze the impact of passenger load factor variation on evacuation time. The results show that: (1) Passenger load factor variation has a considerable impact on evacuation time in underwater shield tunnels. Simulation results assuming full load yield remarkably overestimated evacuation time. When the passenger load factor rises from the actual 27.66% to 100%, evacuation time increases by as much as 217.03%. (2) Evacuation time exhibits a strong positive linear correlation with passenger load factor (R²>0.95). Accordingly, linear regression models describing the relationship between passenger load factor and evacuation time under different numbers of lanes and vehicle spacings are established. (3) Both vehicle spacing and the number of lanes affect the degree of influence of passenger load factor on evacuation time and accelerate the growth rate of evacuation time with the increase of passenger load factor. Moreover, an interaction effect exists between the two factors: more lanes and smaller spacing will strengthen the prolongation effect of passenger load factor on evacuation time. These findings suggest that the impact of passenger load factor variation be considered in tunnel evacuation simulation studies and the actual passenger load factor value of 27.66% can be referenced to improve the accuracy and reliability of simulation results.

Key words: underwater shield tunnels, passenger load factor, field investigation, evacuation simulation, evacuation time

刘顶立, 武璐, 刘俊祺, 卜蓉伟, 范传刚. 满载率差异对水下盾构隧道疏散时间的影响[J]. 隧道建设, 2026, 46(6): 1220-1230.

LIU Dingli, WU Lu, LIU Junqi, BU Rongwei, FAN Chuangang. Impact of Passenger Load Factor Variation on Evacuation Time in Underwater Shield Tunnels[J]. Tunnel Construction, 2026, 46(6): 1220-1230.

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满载率差异对水下盾构隧道疏散时间的影响

Impact of Passenger Load Factor Variation on Evacuation Time in Underwater Shield Tunnels

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