Abstract:  In order to evaluate the potential hazard of ShenzhenZhongshan Link tunnel construction, an evaluation model of potential hazard of underwater tunnel based on mutation theory is established. The evaluation index system is improved by factor analysis so as to reduce the influence of subjective factors. Seventeen safety potential hazard indices are sorted out according to expert opinions, and 5 first level indices of potential hazards, i.e. floating installation of immersed tube element, deep foundation pit excavation, immersed tube structure prefabrication, environment and climate and offshore auxiliary construction, are extracted by factor analysis, so as to build a hierarchical safety hazard index system. By calculating the importance of each index to the construction safety of the underwater tunnel and sorting the results, it is found that the environmental and climatic hazard and the excavation hazard of the deep foundation pit have the greatest impact on the construction safety of the tunnel. It can provide the basis for the construction enterprises to formulate corresponding safety control measures, so as to effectively prevent the occurrence of safety accidents.

Key words: ShenzhenZhongshan Link, underwater tunnel construction, mutation theory, potential hazard evaluation