Abstract: The basis and application of decision analysis system of design and execution of shield launching and arrival are studied in detail on basis of data analysis, theoretical calculation and software development, so as to improve the efficiency of the design and execution of shield launching and arrival and to control the risks in shield launching and arrival. Conclusions drawn are as follows: 1) The classification of risks in shield launching and arrival is proposed, and potential risks in shield launching and arrival under different ground consolidation conditions are studied. 2) The methods of analysis and assessment on the stability of the end soil are proposed, and the ground consolidation database is established. 3) A database, containing 100 engineering cases, is established, so as to provide database support for the decisionmaking system. 4) A decisionmaking system for the design and execution of shield launching and arrival, including ground stability assessment system, consolidation method selection system, consolidation range determining system, reaction frame support calculation system, risk analysis system and execution organization plan standardization system, is developed. The paper can provide reference for the analysis and determination of the design and execution of shield launching and arrival in similar projects in the future.

Key words: shield launching and arrival, database, ground stability, risk analysis, execution organization plan standardization