Abstract:

In order to select tunnel geologic prediction methods scientifically, a catastrophe progression method based on catastrophe theory of evaluation method is presented. The multilayer assessment objects are analyzed; and then standard quantization of bottom assessment indexes is performed; the ultimate catastrophe function is obtained through quantitative computation by the normalized formula of different catastrophe models; finally, the comprehensive assessment of alternative is realized. The method is applied to evaluate five geological prediction methods for Fault F2 of Zijinshan Tunnel, and geological radar is the best. The result of an evaluation example indicates that the presented method can not only avoid the subjective quantification of assessment indexes, but also be easy to perform and obtain high reliability, which improves the practicability of the catastrophe progression method.

Key words: tunnel, geological prediction, catastrophe progression method